Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) has released its global electric vehicle (EV) and battery forecast.
In its new research, BNEF foresees bigger reductions in battery prices and that most countries will find EVs more economical than gasoline or diesel cars.
According to BNEF’s analysis, 41 million EVs will be sold by 2040. This would translate to 35% of all new car sales. In other words, BNEF believes that 25% of all cars on the road in 2040 will be an EV.
“Demand for lithium-ion batteries for EVs rises to 730GWh in 2030, from 10GWh today. Electricity demand from EVs will rise from 2TWh in 2015 to over 2,000TWh in 2040, equivalent to almost 10% of global electricity demand in 2015” read part of a press release.
If this forecast were anything to go by, EV sales in 2040 would be about 90 times of the 2015 sales, which were approximately 462,000, denoting a 60% increase from the previous year.
The study shows that 13 million barrels per day of crude oil will be displaced by EVs by 2040, denoting about 14% of projected crude oil demand this year.
The survey reveals that there would also be significant drop in the cost for an EV lithium-ion battery (cells and packs) by 2030, coming below $120/KWh, down from observed values of $350/KWh in 2015.